Wednesday, November 14, 2007

The Only Republican Who Can Beat Hillary

From Townhall.com
Wednesday, November 14, 2007 2:07 PM

"The Only Republican Who Can Beat Hillary"

While the spotlight of attention is fixated on The Big Three Republican candidates, the only candidate that can actually keep the Oval Office out of Ms. Hillary Rodham's purse waits quietly overlooked even by conservative pundits who should know better. With a little less fauning over the Three Emperor's clothes and a little more carefull thought, even a budding young strategist could figure it out. Only Duncan Hunter can beat Hillary in '08. Here's why.

The conservative commentators and party strategists are making the MAJOR mistake of looking at the current group of eight candidates and asking which can beat the others. THAT winner may not be able to beat Hillary, the presumed Dem candidate, in November '08. Instead, the hypothetical future run of each Republican against Hillary must be analyzed and compared. The one who emerges from that war gaming as having the best chance against her is the one that the pundits and the people need to get behind NOW. We look at the future, then work backwards to today. Let's look at The Big Three.

A Republican winner MUST win almost the entire South.
Mitt Romney could never do that against Hillary. The South is The Bible Belt, and most of it is Baptist Country. Baptists and southern Presbyterians would have too much of a problem with Romney's Mormon religion. They would either sit out the election or support a third party movement as Dr. James Dobson has suggested may be necessary. We can eliminate Romney as any serious threat to Hillary. That leaves Guiliani and Thompson in the so-called "Top Tier".

Rudi Guiliani would also have serious problems in the South. He is Catholic, a northeasterner, and very liberal on some issues. But his biggest problem may be in Texas. This state's 34 electoral votes absolutely MUST be carried for any Republican to win and many Texans are slowly waking up to the fact that Rudi is now part of Bracewell and Guiliani, the Houston law firm that is intimately involved in the NAFTA superhighway being planned that will run from deep in Mexico, to Laredo on the Mexican border, up into the Midwest USA, and into eastern Canada. His firm brokered the deal that will bring in the huge construction firm of CENTRA in Spain to do the work. The biggest issue in this election year just may be the borders/security issue. And if we are angry that President Bush has been reluctant to seal our southern border, we will be even more angry when we realize that President Rudi won't seal it either. Both men are New World Order all the way. Second, Republican women in Texas may be just independent enough, that, given the choice between a man they can't accept and a woman, they might vote for Hillary just because "it's our turn!" Third, an independent party threat by the Christian Right would be a possibility with Rudi just as it would be with Romney. Finally, the really big state that MUST be carried by any Republican is California. It's electoral votes would be lost to Hillary according to most pundit thinking today. I believe that thinking is accurate for a Guiliani ticket. We can eliminate Rudi as a winner in November, and Pat Robertson's endorsement of him was a big mistake.

The one remaining member of the "Top Tier" Republicans is Fred Thompson.
He could win the entire South including Texas. He could win most of the western States except Washington and Oregon. Could he win California? Maybe - because he is recognized as a popular actor. And California currently has a Republican Governor - also an actor. But Fred Thompson's biggest problem and biggest unknown is his health. His fight with cancer has ravaged him. He looks very old and very tired. His age, his slowness, his almost haggard looks may cause voters to abandone him in the upcoming primaries. The stress of campaigning may make his cancer come roaring back. Voters may reason, that, even were he to make it to the White House, his health may kill him after one year in the most stressful job on Earth. He has been slipping rapidly in most polls lately.

We can thus eliminate the "Top Tier" three and can safely eliminate the "Bottom Tier" four of Tancredo, McCain, Paul, and Huckabee.
I eliminate Huckabee because, though he is rising in polls via christian evangelical favor, these polls measure Republican versus Republican and say nothing about his chances against Hillary. He would lose California to her. We are left with the remaining of the "Bottom Tier", Duncan Hunter.

Why would Hunter be the best choice left in the absence of Thompson?
First, Hunter can and would win the entire South including Texas.
He is a true Reagan conservative and a Baptist.
There would be no talk of a third party movement.
Even without Florida, the South would give him 133 electoral votes (Louisiana will go Republican this time as a legacy of Hurricane Katrina).
He would win most western states except Washington and Oregon.
This would bring his total to 197 (hold on California for now).
If he could win Iowa and Missouri, the total would be 215.
Another 55 electoral votes would put Hunter over the top at 270 - the minimum number needed to guarantee a majority win of the 538 total in a 2 party race.
Well, guess what - California has 55 electoral votes! Could Hunter win California?
He is the only one of the eight candidates who is actually FROM California having represented his San Diego district for 27 years.
And, that 27 years is the longest service among any of the candidates in any of their public careers (Dems included). Being from a state generally gives a candidate an extra 7% to 10% advantage going in.
Hunter was in the Army Rangers, served in Vietnam, and has a son currently serving a third tour in Iraq.
These facts will practically guarantee him the entire 1 million votes from military service personnel in California provided, of course, that the Republican Party doesn't let liberals prevent those votes from being counted as happened in 2000 and in 2004! Hunter also served on the House Armed Services Committee for his entire 27 years in the House . He was it's chairman for the last 4 years until January '07 when Dems took control of it.
Hunter's military experience and background in international military affairs just might also land him the State of Florida for it's large base of military voters.

Additionally, Duncan Hunter is the only Republican who, as of this writing, has actually won anything in this election season.
He surprised everyone in the South Carolina and Texas straw polls recently.

Finally, Hunter's strong stand on border security has been proven repeatedly. He led the building of a successfull double fence system over 59 miles of California's southern border. It has cut illegal immigration by 91%. It has cut drug trafficking similarly. He is the ONLY Republican candidate who has actually done something real and tangible about our 1,800 mile southern border as he wrote and led passage of the Secure Fence Act of 2006 in the House. It passed in the Senate and President Bush signed it over a year ago. It mandates that double fence be built along 854 miles of our southern border.
After all this time, Bush and Michael Chertoff have only seen 5 miles of double fence finished.
It's enough for photo-ops but little else.
President Hunter would ensure that the project will be completed.

A Hunter ticket with Huckabee, Tancredo, or Brownback would thus put the Republican Party in it's best position to beat the Liberal Socialist Party candidate, Ms. Hillary Rodham next November.

I believe that millions of other conservatives are seeing these same factors (maybe not all the factors together) and are poised to thrust Duncan Hunter into prominence because of the Spring primaries.
His rise will surprise everyone - especially the conservative pundits who need to get their blinders off NOW and begin to support him.
Sean Hannity's "Stop Hillary Express" will become the "Guarantee Hillary Victory Express" if he refuses to even interview any but the top 3 or 4 favorites and ignores the only Republican who can actually beat her.

--Ray Curtis, Monday November 12, 2007

List of Must Win States with Their Electoral Votes:
Virginia - 13, North Carolina - 15, South Carolina - 8, Georgia - 15, Tennessee - 11, Alabama - 9, Mississippi - 6, Arkansas - 6, Louisiana - 9, Texas - 34, Oklahoma - 7, Iowa - 7, Missouri - 11,
North Dakota - 3, South Dakota - 3, Nebraska - 5, Kansas - 6, Montana - 3, Wyoming - 3, Colorado - 9, New Mexico - 5, Arizona - 10, Utah - 5, Nevada - 5, Idaho - 4, Alaska - 3,
California - 55.

track back
Nominate Duncan Hunter and I will personally deliver Red State Oklahoma's 7 electoral votes if I have to personally knock on every single door myself.
-red

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4 Comments:

Blogger Marie's Two Cents said...

Although I'm a FredHead, I will support whoever emerges as the front runner, even Duncan Hunter
:-)

I do like all the candidates with the exception of Ron Paul.

3:28 PM  
Blogger The Localmalcontent said...

Red, I've read this post three times, and cannot find a flaw in your reasoned logic. Honestly, and Objectively.

You state: 'Baptists and southern Presbyterians would have too much of a problem with Romney's Mormon religion, {and} would either sit out the election or support a third party movement ...'
Exactly right. Because It would come down to a choice between 'Jesus Christ or Romney', or Giuliani, for his liberal, pro-abortion stand.

You maintain then, that leaves Mr. Thompson, Mr. Paul, Tancredo and Mr. Hunter. Thompson, a late comer, has never shown the charisma nor the drive, to inspire Republicans.
Paul and Tom Tancredo are already sitting on the pine, watching.

That does leave Rep. Duncan Hunter, the, THE staunch Conservative, atop the field.

And Red, friend, ask this question:
WWRE?
Who Would Reagan Endorse?
-So-called Republicans and all Conservatives, if they honestly answer that question, have only one choice, one candidate to beat the Liberal candidate, and protect our country.-

That is the real kicker: W.W.R.E.?

3:36 PM  
Blogger Red S Tater said...

I'm with ya Marie... same for Fred. I truly do like Thompson... he was my choice before I found Hunter.

hey mal, I wish those were my words... while i agree with most of it, I doubt if most Americans will get the chance to come to that conclusion.

But I sure Hope so.
-red

3:41 PM  
Blogger Red S Tater said...

WWRE... hmmm thats a good one.

Fred is an actor and has that ability to speak heart to heart... Mitt sees himself as a Reagan model, but then Duncan and the gipper were friends.

However, I think that if Nancy were doing the picking for him, it would be Rudy on embryonic stem cells.

7:42 PM  

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